START & New START Treaty

Context

The New START (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) officially expired without a successor agreement. For the first time in over 50 years since the SALT I negotiations began in 1969, there are no legally binding limits on the nuclear arsenals of the world’s two largest nuclear powers, the United States and Russia.

Background: Evolution of START

The START framework was born out of the Cold War necessity to shift from the "unlimited accumulation" of weapons to "negotiated reduction."

START I (1991): Signed between the USA and the USSR (just months before its collapse), it was the first treaty to actually reduce nuclear warheads (to 6,000 each) rather than just capping their growth.
New START (2010): Signed by Presidents Obama and Medvedev, it further lowered the ceilings. It entered into force in 2011 with an initial 10-year lifespan.
Extension (2021): In one of their first major diplomatic acts, Presidents Biden and Putin agreed to a one-time, five-year extension (the maximum allowed), pushing the expiration to February 2026.

Key Provisions of New START

The treaty imposed three "Central Limits" on each side:

1,550 Deployed Strategic Warheads: The actual bombs ready for immediate use.
700 Deployed Delivery Systems: Including ICBMs (Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles), SLBMs (Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missiles), and heavy bombers.
800 Deployed and Non-deployed Launchers: Total capacity including those in maintenance or storage.

The Current Crisis

The treaty’s "inglorious end" resulted from a breakdown in verification and changing geopolitical priorities:

Suspension in 2023: Citing US support for Ukraine, Russia "suspended" participation in February 2023. While it pledged to stay within numerical limits, it halted on-site inspections and data exchanges, effectively blinding the verification process.
Russia’s Final Offer: In September 2025, Vladimir Putin proposed an informal one-year "political commitment" to adhere to New START limits if the US did the same.
The US Position (2026): The Trump administration allowed the treaty to lapse, with the President stating, "If it expires, it expires. We'll just do a better agreement."
- The China Factor: US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has emphasized that any 21st-century arms control must include China, whose arsenal has tripled since 2020 (now estimated at 600+ warheads).
- Technological Shift: The US is pivoting toward missile defense (the "Golden Dome") rather than just counting offensive warhead numbers.

Challenges & Global Risks

The Nuclear Vacuum: Without inspections, "worst-case assumptions" will drive military planning, potentially triggering a new, expensive arms race.
Multipolarity: Russia insists that if China is included, NATO allies (UK and France) must also be at the table.
NPT Erosion: Non-nuclear states argue that the lapse violates Article VI of the NPT, which obliges nuclear powers to pursue disarmament, potentially encouraging other nations to "go nuclear."

Conclusion

The expiration of New START marks the end of bilateral "Cold War-style" arms control. The focus now shifts to whether a trilateral framework (US-Russia-China) can be established in Abu Dhabi or Geneva, or if the world is entering an era of unconstrained nuclear expansion.

START & New START Treaty