Escalating Threat in the Red Sea

Escalating Threat in the Red Sea

GS-I, II, III: Geography, International Relations, Internal Security

(UPSC/State PSC)

Important for Prelims

Red Sea trade route, Cape of Good Hope, Houthi rebels, Bab-el Mandeb Strait, Gulf of Aden, Gulf of Aqaba.

Important for Mains

Motives Behind Red Sea Attacks, Growing concerns due to Red Sea crisis, Impact of Red Sea Crisis on India, Way Forward, Conclusion.

Jan. 20, 2024

Context:

Recently, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have intensified their attacks on ships in the Red Sea, citing revenge against Israel for its actions in Gaza. This has prompted the US and UK to launch strikes against Houthi targets in Yemen, leading to concerns about a broader regional conflict. The attacks have disrupted global trade routes, raising fears of a significant impact on the world economy.

  • Indian exports to Europe, especially low-value products like agriculture and textiles, are facing disruption due to rising tensions in the Red Sea, according to a recent statement from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MOCI).
  • In response to growing security concerns in the Red Sea, the re-routing of shipments through the Cape of Good Hope delayed sailings to Europe and significantly increased freight rates.

Motives Behind Red Sea Attacks:

  • Economic Impact on Israel’s Allies: The Houthis aim to inflict economic pain on Israel’s allies by disrupting shipping in the Red Sea, a vital trade route. The attacks could lead to increased costs, affecting global supply chains and potentially causing a shock to the world economy.
  • Championing the Palestinian Cause: Targeting Israel aligns with the Houthi agenda to gain legitimacy domestically and regionally. It may also strengthen their position in Yemen by countering Arab adversaries.

Growing concerns due to Red Sea crisis:

  • Security Concerns: The Red Sea crisis has risen to a global security threat, causing a serious impact on international shipping and global supply chain security.
  • Additionally, Yemeni airstrikes against the US and Britain in the Red Sea waterway have raised fears of an escalation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
  • Economic Concerns: The Red Sea crisis will lead to higher energy prices and higher inflation, which will have a greater negative impact on world economic growth, drag down the economic recovery of Asian and European countries, and cause huge losses to Egypt and other Red Sea shipping stakeholders.
  • Violation of International Laws: The attack by the US and UK is seen as a violation of Yemen’s sovereignty and international laws. Russia and China accused the Western allies of raising regional tensions and charged that the U.S. and British strikes violated international law and raised regional tensions.
  • Increasing Threat to Human Lives: In addition to existing Israel-Palestine challenges, the continued Houthi threats to maritime navigation coupled with the risk of further military escalation could potentially impact millions in Yemen, the Red Sea region and the world at large.
  • Impact on Asian Economies: The lack of security in the Red Sea is expected to have a cascading effect, particularly on Asian economies such as India, Japan, South Korea and China.

Impact of Red Sea Crisis on India:

  • Impacts on Exports: The longer route is being used when exporting to Europe, the U.S. East Coast or even to countries in North Africa.
  • According to the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, almost 90% of western hemisphere cargo, both inbound or shipped from India, that used to go through the Red Sea is now getting re-routed through the Cape of Good Hope.
  • Impact on Imports: Besides the extra time taken on account of the longer route, the developments could make imports costlier and call for better inventory management.
  • Energy Security: The instability in the Middle East could lead to a spike in global oil prices. India heavily depends on oil imports, and any significant price increase could adversely affect its economy.
  • For instance, the Red Sea crisis could come in the way of any plans to reduce pump prices of petrol and diesel as India’s import dependence (based on consumption) in the April-September 2023 period was 87.6%, according to the government’s Petroleum Planning and Analysis Cell.
  • Impact on Security of Merchant Vessels: Houthis are attacking international shipping vessels with drone and missile attacks in the area.
  • For instance, in December 2023, a Liberia-flagged merchant vessel (MV Chem Pluto) carrying a crew of 22 (of which 21 were Indians), came under a drone attack around 220 nautical miles southwest of Porbandar, Gujarat, while it was on its way to New Mangalore.
  • Security of Indian Diaspora: The safety of the Indian diaspora residing in the conflict zone becomes a priority. India may need to undertake evacuation operations to ensure the well-being of its citizens.
  • For instance, as of March 2022, of the estimated 1.34 crore Non-Resident Indians, more than 66% are in the Gulf countries of UAE, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain, according to the External Affairs Ministry.

About the Red Sea:

  • A vital waterway for global commerce and energy shipped between Europe and Asia.
  • Through the Red Sea, perhaps one-third of the global seaborne oil supply passes.
  • Houthi Attacks on Ships Significance: An estimated 12% of global trade by volume normally flows, and perhaps 30% of global container traffic through it.
  • Challenge: It has become a no-go zone as the Houthis attack shipping.

About Bab el-Mandeb:

  • It is a narrow strait between Africa and the Arabian Peninsula.
  • It is located between Yemen on the Arabian Peninsula and Djibouti and Eritrea on the African coast. It is also known as the Gate of Tears.

Significance:

  • It is the route by which ships can reach the Suez Canal from the south – itself a major shipping lane.
  • Avoiding it means vessels must take much longer routes, for example navigating around southern Africa.

Way Forward:

  • Building peace through mediation: The escalating Red Sea crisis is evolving into a global security challenge that requires a joint response from the international community.
  • At present, the US and Western countries should refrain from further using military means to resolve the Red Sea crisis and the Yemen issue.
  • To resolve the Red Sea crisis, international coordination should be strengthened and international consensus should be reached to find a political solution.
  • India needs a balanced approach: In response to the escalating Middle East crisis, India should actively engage with all stakeholders, including Iran, the US and regional powers.
  • Through diplomatic channels, India should advocate collective efforts to de-escalate tensions, dialogue and address the root causes.
  • Role of the international organization: According to the United Nations, no cause or grievance can justify Houthi attacks against freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.
  • The Secretary-General of the International Maritime Organization (IMO) underlined the importance of ensuring the safety of seafarers, freedom of navigation and sustainability of supply chains.
  • Resolution of the Israel-Palestine issue: The Red Sea crisis is a chain reaction of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. The international community should promote a comprehensive ceasefire between Palestine and Israel as soon as possible.
  • Strengthen security governance in the Middle East: Many security problems in the Middle East have their roots in development and governance.
  • Making optimal use of the tide of rapprochement to promote security governance and economic development is a direction that requires greater efforts by countries in the region and the international community.
  • Learn from anti-piracy efforts: There is a need to learn lessons from successful anti-piracy efforts such as the coordinated patrols in the Gulf of Aden.
  • In 2012, India joined China, Japan and South Korea for coordinated joint patrols in the Gulf of Aden.
  • Considerations on Non-State Actors: Acknowledge the growing influence of non-state extremist actors in the geopolitical landscape. Develop strategies that take into account the emerging role of non-state actors and their impact on regional stability.

Conclusion:

  • There is a need for the world community to be strategically prepared to effectively control such terrorist attacks as such attacks will have a serious impact not only on the world economy, consumers, stock levels, costs and supply chains, but will also affect international relations.

Source: The Hindu

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Mains Question

Examine the geopolitical challenges in the Red Sea, in light of recent events affecting international trade.