Trump’s Re-election and India US Relations

Trump’s Re-election and India US Relations

 

Context:

  • After intense competition, Republican nominee Donald Trump has been elected as the President of the United States for the second term.
  • Trump defeated Democratic candidate Kamala Harris with 277 electoral votes, while Kamala Harris trails with 224 electoral votes.
  • Trump has been declared the winner. Many leaders across the globe have come forward and congratulated Trump on his historical win.

 

US Presidential Election:

  • The US Presidential Election takes place every four years on the first Tuesday in November.
  • Candidates must be at least 35 years old, born in the United States, and lived in the US for the previous 14 years to be eligible.
  • Traditionally, candidates make their intention to run for President public in the year before the election takes place.
  • Since there is no national authority that conducts the elections, local authorities organize the election with the help of thousands of administrators.

 

The Election Process for US President:

The US President and Vice President are not elected directly by the people. Instead, they are chosen by “electors” through a process called the “Electoral College”.

 

The election process for US president can be consolidated into few steps:

Primary Elections and Caucuses:

  • Primaries and caucuses are two ways that people help states and political parties choose presidential nominees.
  • These take place in each state and run from early in the election year until the summer.
  • During this stage, party members vote for their preferred candidates, and delegates are assigned to represent these choices at the national conventions.

U.S. Presidential Election

  • The U.S. presidential election is held every four years to elect the President and Vice President of the United States.
  • It follows an indirect voting process, where citizens vote for a slate of electors who then choose the President and Vice President.

National Conventions

  • Following the primaries, each party holds a national convention where delegates officially nominate the party’s candidates for President and Vice President.
  • The nominees then accept the party's nomination, and the general election campaign begins.

The General Election

  • The general election occurs on the first Tuesday after the first Monday in November.
  • Voters in each state cast their ballots for President, effectively choosing electors who will represent their state in the Electoral College.

Electoral College Voting and Inauguration

  • In December, the electors meet in their respective state capitals to cast their official votes.
  • These votes are counted by Congress in early January, and the President-elect is formally declared.
  • The elected President is then inaugurated on January 20, marking the official start of their term in office.

 

Electoral College Mechanism in US

Electoral College System

  • Americans don't directly vote for the President; instead, they vote for electors who form the Electoral College.
  • There are 538 electors, and a candidate needs 270 to win the presidency.

Allocation of Electors

  • Each state has a designated number of electors, roughly based on its population.
  • By voting for a candidate, voters are actually choosing that candidate’s party-designated electors for their state.

Winner-Takes-All Rule

  • Most states use a winner-takes-all system (except Maine and Nebraska), where the candidate who wins the popular vote in a state receives all its electoral votes.
  • This system often makes the outcome in solidly Democratic or Republican states predictable.

Importance of Swing States

  • Due to this system, close races in a few "swing states" hold significant influence over the election, as the overall outcome depends on who reaches the 270 electoral vote threshold first.

 

Duties and voting by electors:

  • Electors meet in December to formally vote for the President and Vice President.
  • While electors traditionally vote in line with their party's candidate, there is no federal law binding them to do so.
  • However, many states have laws enforcing elector loyalty, and faithless electors are rare, as seen in the 2016 election.

 

Role of Swing States

  • Some states, known as “swing states” or “battleground states,” have historically close races and can vote either Democratic or Republican.
  • These states play a pivotal role, as the winner-takes-all system makes their outcome critical to securing the required 270 electoral votes.

Swing states in this year’s election

  • Seven key swing states—Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Arizona, Wisconsin, and Nevada—are critical in the current U.S. presidential election.
  • Together, these states hold 93 Electoral College votes and are being heavily targeted by both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s campaigns.

 

What are some of Trump's controversial policies globally?

  • Trade Policies: Trump’s “America First” agenda includes imposing tariffs on foreign goods to protect domestic industries. He has proposed a 10% tariff on all imports, which could disrupt global trade dynamics.
  • Foreign Alliances: Trump has criticized NATO allies for not meeting defense spending commitments and has suggested reducing US involvement in international alliances, potentially weakening collective security arrangements.
  • Immigration Policies: Stricter immigration controls, including limitations on H-1B visas, could affect global talent mobility, impacting countries like India that have a significant number of professionals working in the US.
  • Climate Policy: Trump’s previous withdrawal from the Paris Agreement and potential rollback of environmental regulations may hinder global efforts to combat climate change.

 

What Policies towards India defined his last term?

  • Defense Cooperation: The US designated India as a Major Defense Partner, facilitating the transfer of advanced military technology. The signing of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA) in 2018 enhanced military interoperability.
  • Trade Relations: While trade increased, disputes arose over tariffs and market access, leading to the termination of India’s preferential trade status under the Generalized System of Preferences (GSP) in 2019.
  • Strategic Alignments: The revival of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad) involving the US, India, Japan, and Australia aimed at countering China’s influence in the Indo-Pacific region.
  • Immigration Restrictions: The administration imposed stricter regulations on H-1B visas, affecting Indian IT professionals.

 

 

What are the possible positives of Trump’s Re-election and India-US relations?

  • Renewal of Trade Negotiations: Trump’s intent to resume discussions on a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) with India could revive talks that had stalled in 2019-2020, potentially increasing trade volumes and technology transfer.
  • Access to Military Technology: Trump has expressed interest in providing US military hardware to India, which aligns with India’s modernization goals. His administration is expected to facilitate technology transfers and defense purchases with less bureaucratic resistance.
  • Relief from Human Rights Scrutiny: Under Trump, India is likely to experience less pressure over issues such as minority rights, freedom of the press, and the operation of NGOs.
  • Stronger Stance Against Khalistani Separatism: Trump is expected to take actions against Khalistan groups in the US, which is seen as beneficial for India. He also is not favourable towards Canada’s Justin Trudeau government.
  • Potential Dollar Weakness and Forex Volatility: Increased inflation and trade deficits could weaken the US dollar. For India, a weak dollar may reduce import costs, benefiting sectors like IT, while simultaneously posing challenges in managing forex and interest rate stability.
  • Proposed Green Card Reforms: Trump’s recent proposal to automatically grant green cards to international students graduating from US institutions could benefit Indian students. This policy may encourage more Indian students to pursue education and careers in the US, enhancing India’s skills pipeline.
  • Impact on Legal and Illegal Immigration Controls: While stringent immigration controls could limit the flow of unskilled labor to the US, the focus on skilled immigrants aligns with India’s interests, especially for sectors like IT and engineering.
  • Reduction in Corporate Tax Rate (from 21% to 15%): Trump’s plan to reduce corporate taxes could free up capital for US businesses, potentially increasing demand for outsourced services from India.